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Who will win? Ranking the Democratic primary candidates in New Hampshire - The Boston Globe

posted onSeptember 7, 2019
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Article snippet: If the New Hampshire Democratic primary were held today, who would win? When the Globe set to answer that question in May, former vice president Joe Biden had recently entered the race and sat as the Granite State frontrunner. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., was rising, and New England Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren began to loosely form a top-tier with Biden. There have been two major changes over the last four months. First, the top tier of Biden, Sanders, Warren has solidified — so much so it’s hard to see how any other candidate can even compete in New Hampshire. Second, the next tier of candidates has been focused on national metrics, such as the number of contributors to their campaigns. That’s largely a function of the Democratic National Committee’s requirements to make debates. And it has meant less time campaigning in New Hampshire, compared to earlier presidential cycles. The rankings here are based on polls of New Hampshire voters, interviews with more than a dozen, activists, operatives, and insiders, and an analysis of the on-the-ground infrastructure each campaign has built. While the rankings are based on what would happen today, the primary is set to take place in February, so there’s plenty of time for things to change. One candidate that is unlikely to shift much is former representative Beto O’Rourke from Texas, who has been dropped from this list as a contender. Last month O’Rourke declared he will significantly scale... Link to the full article to read more

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