Article snippet: The May job numbers raise a depressing possibility: that this is as good as it will get for the United States labor market. At first glance, the new numbers seem like a bit of a mystery. The unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low, yet job creation slowed and the number of people who are neither working nor looking for work rose. But the data aren’t really inconsistent. Rather, they point to a job market that is pretty close to full employment — where workers who want a job can find one fairly easily, but low unemployment isn’t pulling workers into the labor force en masse. The big headline is a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent. That’s lower than it ever fell during the mid-2000s expansion, and you now have to go back to 2001 to find a moment as good. But the details of why the rate fell in May are terrible; the unemployment rate dropped for all the wrong reasons. Instead of a decrease because more people are employed, the number of people who reported themselves as having a job actually dropped by 233,000. Meanwhile, the number of people not in the labor force at all — neither working nor actively looking for work — soared by 608,000. Those are volatile numbers, and any one month probably doesn’t mean much. But over a longer horizon, the trend is still looking pretty soft. The great weak spot in the labor market in the last few years has been labor market participation — fewer adults have sought work at all, so they are not working but do not count a... Link to the full article to read more
We May Be Closer to Full Employment Than It Seemed. That’s Bad News. - The New York Times
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