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We May Be Closer to Full Employment Than It Seemed. That’s Bad News. - The New York Times

posted onJune 3, 2017
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Article snippet: The May job numbers raise a depressing possibility: that this is as good as it will get for the United States labor market. At first glance, the new numbers seem like a bit of a mystery. The unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low, yet job creation slowed and the number of people who are neither working nor looking for work rose. But the data aren’t really inconsistent. Rather, they point to a job market that is pretty close to full employment — where workers who want a job can find one fairly easily, but low unemployment isn’t pulling workers into the labor force en masse. The big headline is a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent. That’s lower than it ever fell during the mid-2000s expansion, and you now have to go back to 2001 to find a moment as good. But the details of why the rate fell in May are terrible; the unemployment rate dropped for all the wrong reasons. Instead of a decrease because more people are employed, the number of people who reported themselves as having a job actually dropped by 233,000. Meanwhile, the number of people not in the labor force at all — neither working nor actively looking for work — soared by 608,000. Those are volatile numbers, and any one month probably doesn’t mean much. But over a longer horizon, the trend is still looking pretty soft. The great weak spot in the labor market in the last few years has been labor market participation — fewer adults have sought work at all, so they are not working but do not count a... Link to the full article to read more

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